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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.