🔗 Share this article

Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in New York City, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – accurately predicting that the progressive candidate was victorious although missing the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the tally every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which Cuomo was going to end up basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year went for Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the record turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He’s at just over 50% but remain around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So I don’t think it’s definitive, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for Cuomo. Thus there existed a little resistance. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly supportive. Therefore it’s unclear if existed major surprises here, but he retained left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that we’ll see additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.